Modelling Water and Biodiversity: Coupling a dynamic eco-evolution trait-based vegetation model with a community water model

Stefaniak, E., de Bruijn, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3961-6382, Smilovic, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9651-8821, Artuso, S., Martin, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2862-8540, Maxwell, T., Joshi, J., & Hofhansl, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0073-0946 (2024). Modelling Water and Biodiversity: Coupling a dynamic eco-evolution trait-based vegetation model with a community water model. DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16184. In: EGU General Assembly 2024, 14-19 April 2024, Vienna.

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Abstract

The recently developed Plant-FATE (Plant Functional Acclimation and Trait Evolution) model is a trait-size-structured eco-evolutionary population model derived from the ‘Plant’ model. It includes a McKendrick-von Foerster partial differential equation (PDE) describing how the size distribution of each species evolves through time. The trait structure allows for modelling functional diversity and adaptations, whereas size structure allows for modelling competition for light. Plant-FATE also includes a new P-hydro model for optimal photosynthesis, the ‘perfect plasticity approximation’ for modelling optimal crown placement, and an extended version of the T-model for biomass allocation. Forced with climatic variables and soil-water availability, Plant-FATE can predict emergent species compositions, size-distributions, and ecosystem services such as leaf area, productivity, evapotranspiration, living biomass, and seed output.

Plant-FATE currently predicts vegetation properties and associated ecosystem functions of areas under forest cover. To analyse the -water-biodiversity nexus, it is necessary to cover additional aspects of areas under different land-use, such as croplands, plantations, and urban areas. To that end, we have coupled PlantFATE with a Community Water Model (CWatM) that captures ground water discharge and simulates basin-wide water circulation. CWatM is an open-source model to examine how future water demand will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate.

As a case study, we apply this coupled model to the Bhima Basin to examine the feedback between forest management and land-use. This coupling will enable us to better represent nexus issues, such as the feedback between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning that affect vegetation carbon storage and water provisioning under future land-use and projected climate change scenarios.

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