Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe

Hayes, F., Sharps, K., van Caspel, W.E., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Heyes, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5254-493X, & Fagerli, H. (2025). Global efforts addressing methane emissions is a key factor to further reducing ozone-induced yield losses of crops in Europe. Environmental Pollution 382 e126654. 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126654.

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Abstract

This study has shown that there is a large potential to avoid wheat production losses through global efforts to reduce emissions of non-methane ozone precursors. In addition, global efforts to reduce methane concentrations could avoid additional wheat production losses due to the role of methane as an ozone precursor. Ex-post analysis on scenarios used within the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP-MSC-West) model revealed that within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region (excluding North America and Israel) in 2050 using the LOW future emission scenario, the reduction in ozone as a consequence of reducing global non-methane precursor emissions showed avoided wheat production losses of 6.4 million tonnes compared to that with current legislation. For the EU27 countries this was 3.1 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €675 million. Reducing both non-methane and methane ozone precursors globally have avoided wheat production losses in the UNECE region in 2050 totalling 9.0 million tonnes, compared to that calculated from emissions in current legislation. Within EU27 this was 4.4 million tonnes of wheat, equating to a value of approximately €976 million.

Within the UNECE region (excluding North America and Israel) the relative benefits of additional reductions in non-methane emissions within the region, non-methane emissions in the rest of the world, and global efforts to reduce methane emissions, were approximately equal. This demonstrates the benefits from reducing regional non-methane emissions, global non-methane emissions and global methane as contributing factors to avoiding crop yield losses due to their role in ozone formation.

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