Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target

Rodés-Bachs, C., Drouet, L., Rafaj, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1000-5617, Tavoni, M., & Reis, L.A. (2025). Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target. Science Advances 11 (42) eadu7590. 10.1126/sciadv.adu7590.

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Abstract

Exposure to outdoor air pollution results in millions of premature deaths and illnesses that are associated with substantial economic loss. According to the Global Burden of Disease, outdoor air pollution was responsible for 4.7 million deaths in 2021. Climate change mitigation policies could provide cobenefits by reducing air pollution. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report explores scenarios using an updated carbon budget approach—the net-zero pathways—designed to avoid temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature limit. We assess whether net-zero pathways consistently improve air pollution outcomes using a global source-receptor air pollution model to estimate concentrations, health impacts, and economic damages. To analyze key uncertainties, we apply multiple relative risk functions and economic damage models. Our findings show that stringent climate policies, avoiding overshoot and keeping below 2°C, offer substantial health and economic cobenefits, particularly for China and India, and avoid 207,000 premature deaths and 2269 billion USD2020 in damages by 2030.

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