Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model

Im, U., Shindell, D., Tsigaridis, K., Bauer, S., Olivié, D., Wilson, S., Sørensen, L.L., Langen, P.L., Eckhardt, S., Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7514-3135, Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Lindl, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-0826-996X, & Bruhwiler, L. (2026). Evolution of Near‐Term Atmospheric Methane and Associated Temperature Response Under the Global Methane Pledge: Insights From an Earth System Model. Geophysical Research Letters 53 (1) e2025GL118967. 10.1029/2025GL118967.

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Abstract

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a shorter lifetime than carbon dioxide (CO2), making it an important target for near-term climate action. The Global Methane Pledge (GMP) aims to cut anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Using an Earth system model with interactive CH4 sources and sinks, we assess the Pledge's impact through 2050. Results show that current GMP commitments deliver only a 10% cut by 2030—well below the target. Only the maximum technically feasible reduction (MTFR) pathway can achieve the 30% goal. By 2050, current GMP commitments lowers methane concentrations by 3% relative to 2025, while MTFR achieves 8%. Both pathways slow warming slightly, avoiding about 0.1°C of global temperature rise, with the Arctic seeing the greatest benefits (up to 2°C less warming). Without wider participation, the GMP with current signatories will fall short of its targets and Paris Agreement goals.

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