Scaling near-term climate benefits through low-GWP refrigerants and energy efficiency in China

Jiang, P., Purohit, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7265-6960, Chen, X., Zhao, X., Zhang, X., & Hu, J. (2026). Scaling near-term climate benefits through low-GWP refrigerants and energy efficiency in China. In: 10th International Symposium on Non-CO2Greenhouse Gases (NCGG-10), 15-17 June 2026, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

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Abstract

China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector makes hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) mitigation a central non-CO2 climate lever, because these high-GWP gases can deliver near-term warming reductions. China is pivotal for global progress: it represents one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for cooling equipment and associated refrigerant demand, while also driving rising electricity use. This creates a dual opportunity—accelerating low-GWP refrigerant transition alongside energy-efficiency improvement—to jointly curb direct HFC impacts and amplify system-level mitigation outcomes across major cooling subsectors.

We apply a bottom-up, scenario-based model to quantify refrigerant-related impacts (linked to HFC consumption) and electricity-related emissions over 2022–2060 across four subsectors in China: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. We compare business-as-usual (BAU) with Kigali Amendment with enhanced Energy Efficiency (KAE), and Accelerated Transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced Energy Efficiency (ATE).

Relative to BAU, ATE reduces cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO2-eq from 2022 to 2060; about 70% of reductions are achieved through Kigali-compliant controls, with the remainder from faster adoption. Efficiency improvements further avoid 4.1 Gt CO2 (about 28% of total avoided GHG emissions) and are associated with substantial co-reductions in SO2, NOx, and PM2.5. The combined strategy lowers global mean temperature by up to 0.015 °C by 2060, underscoring the value of integrated refrigerant and efficiency policy for maximizing non-CO2 mitigation and broader co-benefits.

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