Production Costing Simulation in Thermal Power Systems Using the Mixture of Conditional Load Distribution Functions

Hoffer, J. & Doerfner, P. (1990). Production Costing Simulation in Thermal Power Systems Using the Mixture of Conditional Load Distribution Functions. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-90-080

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Abstract

In the 1980's the cumulant method became popular in reliability type algorithms for production cost evaluation, particularly in the evaluation of loss-of-load probability (LOLP), energy not served (ENS) and expected energy generation (EEG) of a set of generating units belonging to an electric power system. We developed a probabilistic model which is able to handle the uncertainty of both generating units and peak load forecast. In order to model the load including peak load forecast uncertainty we use conditional probability distributions. We show that the cumulant method is still applicable, as we can compute all the moments of the load duration curve (load distribution) without discretizing the density function of peak load forecast.

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