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Article

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M.W., Andrew, R.M., Hauck, J., Landschützer, P., Le Quéré, C., Li, H., Luijkx, I. T., Olsen, A., Peters, G. P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J.G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R.B., Alin, S.R., Arneth, A. et al. (2025). Global Carbon Budget 2024. Earth System Science Data Discussions 17 (3), 965-1039. 10.18160/GCP-2024.

O’Sullivan, M., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Luijkx, I.T., Peters, W., Rosan, T.M., Arneth, A., Arora, V.K., Chandra, N., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Falk, S., Feng, L., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Houghton, R.A., Jain, A.K., Kato, E., Kennedy, D., Knauer, J., McGrath, M.J. et al. (2024). The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink. Communications Earth & Environment 5 (1), e705. 10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4.

Pereira, H.M., Martins, I.S., Rosa, I., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Hurtt, G., Quoss, L., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Bakkenes, M., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T. et al. (2024). Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. Science 384 (6694), 458-465. 10.1126/science.adn3441.

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R., den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C. et al. (2023). Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures. Global Environmental Change 82, e102681. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681.

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M.W., Andrew, R.M., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, I.T., Olsen, A., Peters, G.P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J.G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R.B., Alin, S.R., Alkama, R., Arneth, A. et al. (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data 14 (11), 4811-4900. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.

Henry, R.C., Arneth, A., Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390, Rabin, S.S., Rounsevell, M.D., Warren, F. & Alexander, P. (2022). Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios. Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x.

Ruane, A.C., Phillips, M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Jägermeyr, J., Arneth, A., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Rosenzweig, C., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Sultan, B. et al. (2021). Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 300, e108313. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313.

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M., Andrew, R., Hauck, J., Olsen, A., Peters, G., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Sitch, S., Le Quéré, C., Canadell, J., Ciais, P., Jackson, R., Alin, S., Aragão, L., Arneth, A., Arora, V., Bates, N., Becker, M. et al. (2020). Global Carbon Budget 2020. Earth System Science Data Discussions 12 (4), 3269-3340. 10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020.

Li, W., Ciais, P., Stehfest, E., van Vuuren, D., Popp, A., Arneth, A., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Doelman, J., Humpenöder, F., Harper, A.B., Park, T., Makowski, D., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, Wang, J., Krause, A. & Liu, W. (2020). Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale. Earth System Science Data Discussions 12 (2), 789-804. 10.5194/essd-12-789-2020.

Pereira, H.M., Rosa, I.M.D., Martins, I.S., Kim, H., Leadley, P., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Hurtt, G., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Di Marco, M., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S., Guerra, C.A., Harfoot, M., Harwood, T.D. et al. (2020). Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050. bioRxiv (Preprint) 10.1101/2020.04.14.031716.

Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2019). Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS ONE 14 (9), e0221862. 10.1371/journal.pone.0221862.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Kelly, D., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hoek, S., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Sakurai, G. et al. (2019). The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Scientific Data 6 (1), e50. 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8.

Tian, H., Yang, J., Xu, R., Lu, C., Canadell, J.G., Davidson, E.A., Jackson, R.B., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E., Thompson, R.L. et al. (2019). Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the pre-industrial era estimated by an ensemble of Terrestrial Biosphere Models: Magnitude, attribution and uncertainty. Global Change Biology 25 (2), 640-659. 10.1111/gcb.14514.

Tian, H., Yang, J,, Lu, C., Xu, R., Canadell, J.G., Jackson, R., Arneth, A., Chang, J., Chen, G., Ciais, P., Gerber, S., Ito, A., Huang, Y., Joos, F., Lienert, S., Messina, P., Olin, S., Pan, S., Peng, C., Saikawa, E. et al. (2018). The global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP): Objectives, Simulation Protocol and Expected Products. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99 (6), 1-51. 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0212.1.

Kim, H., Rosa, I.M.D., Alkemade, R., Leadley, P., Hurtt, G., Popp, A., van Vuuren, D., Anthoni, P., Arneth, A., Baisero, D., Caton, E., Chaplin-Kramer, R., Chini, L., De Palma, A., Di Fulvio, F. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7317-6360, Di Marco, M., Espinoza, F., Ferrier, S., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Gonzalez, R.E. et al. (2018). A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development 11, 4537-4562. 10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018.

Porwollik, V., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Iizumi, T., Ray, D.K., Ruane, A.C., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P.J., Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Sakurai, G. et al. (2017). Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations. European Journal of Agronomy 88, 10-21. 10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.006.

Frieler, K., Schauberger, B., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Müller, C., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Schaphoff, S., Schewe, J., Schmidt, E., Warszawski, L. & Levermann, A. (2017). Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. Earth's Future 5 (6), 605-616. 10.1002/2016EF000525.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Glotter, M., Hoek, S., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Ray, D., Reddy, A. et al. (2017). Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 10, 1403-1422. 10.5194/gmd-2016-207.

Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P.H., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Batista e Silva, F., Brown, C., Butler, A., Calvin, K., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J.C., Dunford, R., Engström, K., Eitelberg, D., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Harrison, P.A., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Holzhauer, S., Humpenöder, F. et al. (2017). Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Global Change Biology 23, 767-781. 10.1111/gcb.13447.

Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Eliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Rolinski, F., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Wang, X., Schlenker, W. & Frieler, K. (2017). Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Communications 8, art.no.13931. 10.1038/ncomms13931.

Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2016). Uncertainties in global crop model frameworks: effects of cultivar distribution, crop management and soil handling on crop yield estimates. Biogeosciences Discussions, 1-30. 10.5194/bg-2016-527. (Submitted)

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D., Engström, K., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Humpenöder, F., Jain, A.K., Krisztin, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9241-8628, Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R.D., Schaldach, R., Schüngel, J. et al. (2016). Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison. Global Change Biology 22 (12), 3967-3983. 10.1111/gcb.13337.

Pugh, T.A.M, Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Olin, S., Schmid, E. & Arneth, A. (2016). Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nature Communications 7, e12608. 10.1038/ncomms12608.

Knorr, W., Dentener, F., Hantson, S., Jiang, L., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X & Arneth, A. (2016). Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (9), 5685-5703. 10.5194/acp-16-5685-2016.

Knorr, W., Dentener, F., Hantson, S., Jiang, L., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X & Arneth, A. (2016). Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (9), 5685-5703. 10.5194/acp-16-5685-2016.

Knorr, W., Dentener, F., Hantson, S., Jiang, L., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X & Arneth, A. (2016). Climate changes and wildfire emissions of atmospheric pollutants in Europe. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 16, 5685-5703. 10.5194/acp-16-5685-2016.

Knorr, W., Dentener, F., Hantson, S., Jiang, L., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X & Arneth, A. (2016). Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16 (9), 5685-5703. 10.5194/acp-16-5685-2016.

Suni, T., Guenther, H.C., Hansson, H.C., Kulmala, M., Andreae, M.O., Arneth, A., Artaxo, P., Blyth, E., Brus, M., Ganzeveld, L., Kabat, P., Noblet-Decoudre, N., Reichstein, M., Reissell, A., Rosenfeld, D. & Seneviratne, S. (2015). The significance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system - iLEAPS achievements and perspectives. Anthropocene 12, 69-84. 10.1016/j.ancene.2015.12.001.

Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A.C., Mueller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K.J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Glotter, M., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T.A.M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H. & Jones, J.W. (2014). Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3268-3273. 10.1073/pnas.1222463110.

Book Section

Parmesan, C., Morecroft, M.D., Trisurat, Y., Adrian, R., Anshari, G.Z., Arneth, A., Gao, Q., Gonzalez, P., Harris, R., Price, J., Stevens, N. & Talukdarr, G.H. (2022). Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems and Their Services (Chapter 2). In: IPCC 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Eds. Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D.C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E.S., Mintenbeck, K, Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V. et al., pp. 197-377 Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. 10.1017/9781009325844.004.

Other

Kim, H., Peterson, G., Cheung, W., Ferrier, S., Alkemade, R., Arneth, A., Kuiper, J., Okayasu, S., Pereira, L., Acosta, L., Chaplin-Kramer, R, den Belder, E., Eddy, T., Johnson, J., Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, S., Kok, M., Leadley, P., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Lundquist, C., Rondinini, C. et al. (2021). Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures. Utrecht University 10.31235/osf.io/93sqp. (Submitted)

Okayasu, S., Schoolenberg, M., Alkemade, R., den Belder, E., Pereira, H., Lundquist, C., Cheung, W., Rondinini, C., Halouani, G., Kim, H.J., Miller, B., Hirsch, T., Abbasov, R., Arneth, A., Diaw, M.C., Eddy, T., Harfoot, M., Hasegawa, T., Hickler, T., Hill, S. et al. (2019). Report on the workshop ‘Global Modelling of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency , The Hague.

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