Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Kriegler E, Petermann N, Krey V, Schwanitz VJ, Luderer G, Ashina S, Bosetti V, Eom J, et al. (2015). Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (Part A): 45-61. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.

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Project: Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139)


Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate policy; Integrated assessment models; Energy system models; Model diagnostics; Climate change economics
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 90(Part A):45-61 (January 2015) (Published online 5 March 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2018 15:32
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11541

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