Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Kriegler E, Petermann N, Krey V ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Schwanitz VJ, Luderer G, Ashina S, Bosetti V, Eom J, et al. (2015). Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90 (Part A): 45-61. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020.

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Project: Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE, FP7 265139)

Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate policy; Integrated assessment models; Energy system models; Model diagnostics; Climate change economics
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 90(Part A):45-61 (January 2015) (Published online 5 March 2014)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:53
Last Modified: 14 May 2019 09:42
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11541

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