Jonas M, Żebrowski P, & Rovenskaya E (2015). A metric for the prognostic outreach of scenarios: Learning from the past to establish a standard in applied systems analysis. In: Proceedings, 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions, 7-9 October 2015, Krakow, Poland. pp. 78-89 Warsaw, Poland: Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences. ISBN 83-894-7557-X
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Abstract
Our study concerns retrospective learning, the characteristic feature of which is that prognostic uncertainty increases the more the further we look into the future. RL seeks to establish a metric for the outreach of prognostic scenarios. The purpose behind RL is to provide an easy-to-apply indicator, which informs non-experts about the time in the future at which a prognostic scenario ceases to be in accordance (for whatever reasons) with the system’s past. Ideally, this indicator should be derived concomitantly with building a prognostic model. RL concerns the limitations of predictions and prognostic scenarios.
Item Type: | Book Section |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | 4th International Workshop on Uncertainty in Atmospheric Emissions |
Research Programs: | Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA) |
Depositing User: | IIASA Import |
Date Deposited: | 15 Jan 2016 08:54 |
Last Modified: | 16 Jun 2016 13:29 |
URI: | http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/11662 |
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