Key determinants of global land-use projections

Stehfest E, van Zeist W-J, Valin H ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Havlik P, Popp A, Kyle P, Tabeau A, Mason-D’Croz D, et al. (2019). Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10 (1): e2166. DOI:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w.

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Project: Sustainable Integrated Management FOR the NEXUS of water-land-food-energy-climate for a resource-efficient Europe (SIM4NEXUS, H2020 689150)

Abstract

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 16 May 2019 06:09
Last Modified: 16 May 2019 06:09
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15907

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