The causal effect of primary school reforms on women reproductive behaviors in Ethiopia. Is the expansion in education quantity the primary mechanism?

Kebede, E. (2022). The causal effect of primary school reforms on women reproductive behaviors in Ethiopia. Is the expansion in education quantity the primary mechanism? IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-22-001

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Abstract

Several studies investigated the causal impacts of Africa's school reform programs on demographic outcomes. Many of the studies attributed the reform's causal effects to the post-reform expansions in the quantity of education. Nonetheless, the observed increases in school enrollment came at the expense of education quality needed to derive economic and social developments. The present study uses a formal mediation analysis framework to quantify and decompose the fertility effect of the 1994 Ethiopian school reform program into the impact through the most widely hypothesized mechanism (years of schooling) and the causal impact of the program net the effect of years of education. The results suggest a fertility-inducing effect of the reform mainly driven by mechanisms other than years of education. The fertility-reducing effects of increased school enrollment were too small to offset the positive impact of the unknown mechanisms. The result points to potential losses in the effectiveness of similar reform programs if adverse effects, such as deteriorated school quality, were not given as much attention.

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