Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance

Rella, S.A., Kulikova, Y., Minnegalieva, A.R., & Kondrashov, F.A. (2023). Complex vaccination strategies prevent the emergence of vaccine resistance. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-23-005

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Abstract

Vaccination is the most effective tool to control infectious diseases. However, the evolution of vaccine resistance, exemplified by vaccine-resistance in SARS-CoV-2, remains a concern. Here, we model complex vaccination strategies against a pathogen with multiple epitopes - molecules targeted by the vaccine. We found that a vaccine targeting one epitope was ineffective in preventing vaccine resistance. Vaccine resistance in highly infectious pathogens was prevented by the full-epitope vaccine, one targeting all available epitopes, but only when the rate of pathogen evolution was low. Strikingly, a bet-hedging strategy of random administration of vaccines targeting different epitopes was the most effective in preventing vaccine resistance in pathogens with low rate of infection and high rate of evolution. Thus, complex vaccination strategies, when biologically feasible, may be preferable to the currently used single-vaccine approaches for long-term control of disease outbreaks, especially when applied to livestock with near 100% vaccination rates.

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