A network analysis of external shocks on the dynamics and resilience of the global staple food trade

Li, X., Wang, H., Kharrazi, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5881-2568, Fath, B.D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9440-6842, Liu, G., Liu, G., Xiao, Y., & Lai, X. (2024). A network analysis of external shocks on the dynamics and resilience of the global staple food trade. Food Security 10.1007/s12571-024-01462-z. (In Press)

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Abstract

International food trade plays a crucial role in enhancing global food security by connecting regions with diverse agricultural capabilities and resource endowments. This study employs complex network analysis and ecological network resilience to investigate the historical dynamics of global staple food trade network resilience from 1986 to 2020. Additionally, structural decomposition and econometric analysis are used to explore the drivers of resilience from both internal and external perspectives. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in the resilience dynamics of global staple food trade when faced with external shocks such as COVID-19 and geopolitical tensions. Staple foods, i.e., wheat, rice, and potatoes have demonstrated increased resilience in response to pandemic-related disruptions. However, the aggregated staple food network is more adversely affected by geopolitical tensions compared to the five individual staple food networks, with a more pronounced inhibitory effect on its resilience. Potatoes emerge as the most resilient staple, while soybeans exhibit the lowest resilience. Interestingly, the inclusion of a greater variety of staple foods in the aggregated basket does not necessarily enhance resilience. For instance, integrating potatoes, characterized by high network efficiency, increases resilience, whereas integrating soybeans, with low network efficiency, reduces resilience. Furthermore, the diversity of trade flows and trade partners plays a crucial role in enhancing resilience. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to bolster the resilience of the global food trade network.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Systemic Risk and Resilience (SYRR)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	12 Jul 2024 13:07
Last Modified:	12 Jul 2024 13:07
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/19876

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