Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6638-4076, Lejeune, Q., Zhu, B., Pfleiderer, P., Prutz, R., Ciais, P., Frölicher, T.L., Fuss, S., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Kropf, C.M., Lacroix, F., Lamboll, R., Martyr, R., Maussion, F., McCaughey, J.W., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, et al. (2024). Overconfidence in climate overshoot. Nature 634 (8033) 366-373. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9.

[thumbnail of s41586-024-08020-9.pdf]
Preview
Text
s41586-024-08020-9.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (78MB) | Preview
Project: Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687), Permafrost thaw and the changing arctic coast: science for socio-economic adaptation (Nunataryuk, H2020 773421), Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neUtrality and negative Emissions (RESCUE, HE 101056939)

Abstract

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA)
Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Climate Impacts (ICI)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 10 Oct 2024 08:16
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2024 08:16
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/20044

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item