The Forces of Urbanization under Varying Natural Increase and Migration Rates

Ledent, J. (1978). The Forces of Urbanization under Varying Natural Increase and Migration Rates. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-058

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Abstract

This paper is the third and last of a series seeking to shed some light on the question of whether a nation's urban population grows mostly by rural-urban migration or by natural increase. Again, the discussion evolves around an analytical study of the Keyfitz model of urbanization (Keyfitz, 1978) and the Rogers components-of-change model (Rogers, 1968) applied to a rural-urban system. Here, in contrast to the preceding papers in which rates of natural increase and migration were constant, the present paper allows these rates to vary.

A larger part of the analysis is based on the Keyfitz model, shown earlier to be less meaningful than the alternative model but lending itself to an easier tractability when rates are allowed to vary. In particular, the Keyfitz model is used in an attempt to connect the variations of rural-urban (net) migration rates to economic changes through a simple scheme of wage differentials, later supplemented by the Todaro hypothesis.

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