Key Benchmarks of Global Emissions Scenarios 2025: Annual update of integrated assessment scenarios and related benchmarks for limiting global warming

Scheifinger, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0001-9464-4098, Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Clarke, L., Huppmann, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389, Hasegawa, T., Luderer, G., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Kriegler, E., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, van Vuuren, D., van Ruijven, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892, Dekker, M., Verpoort, P., Beath, H., & Sher, G. (2026). Key Benchmarks of Global Emissions Scenarios 2025: Annual update of integrated assessment scenarios and related benchmarks for limiting global warming. DOI:10.5194/egusphere-egu26-12960. In: EGU General Assembly 2026, 03 May - 08 May 2026, Vienna.

Slideshow EGU26.pptx - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (5MB)

Abstract

Global emissions scenarios describe the nature and pace of future transitions. As such, they have been critical to inform international policy and efforts to limit global warming to specific levels. Since the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the global mitigation landscape has changed substantially, yet many scenario-based benchmarks continue to rely on static assessments. The Scenario Compass Initiative (SCI) responds to this gap by providing a continuously updated, transparent, and curated collection of global emissions scenarios, combined with a systematic benchmarking framework that tracks how mitigation requirements evolve over time.

SCI introduces a novel “live” scenario collection approach that enables ongoing submission, vetting, and release of scenarios, ensuring timely access while maintaining quality control. Scenarios are assessed against feasibility and sustainability criteria, allowing the identification of a policy-relevant subset without relying on statistical outlier exclusion. Building on this curated ensemble, SCI derives benchmarks across key mitigation dimensions, including near-term emissions reductions, renewable energy deployment, net-zero timing, and reliance on net-negative emissions.

Comparing current benchmarks with those underlying AR6 reveals a marked shift in feasible mitigation pathways. The most ambitious AR6 category—characterized by immediate, steep emissions reductions and minimal temperature overshoot—has effectively become unattainable given observed emissions trends and delayed action. As a result, benchmarks for near-term mitigation, net-zero timing, and carbon dioxide removal have all shifted accordingly. At the same time, while quantitative assumptions span wide numerical ranges, most scenarios continue to rely on a narrow set of underlying socioeconomic narratives aligned with SSP1 and SSP2.

This presentation will inform about the updated benchmarks which provide critical reference points for interpreting contemporary scenarios and for supporting robust, policy-relevant climate decision-making.

Actions (login required)

View Item