Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled

Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, et al. (2022). Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled. Geophysical Research Letters 49 (20) 10.1029/2022GL099788.

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Project: Earth system models for the future (ESM2025, H2020 101003536), Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829), Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs (PROVIDE, H2020 101003687), Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471)

Abstract

The IPCC's scientific assessment of the timing of net-zero emissions and 2030 emission reduction targets consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C rests on large scenario databases. Updates to this assessment, such as between the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) of warming and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), are the result of intertwined, sometimes opaque, factors. Here we isolate one factor: the Earth System Model emulators used to estimate the global warming implications of scenarios. We show that warming projections using AR6-calibrated emulators are consistent, to within around 0.1°C, with projections made by the emulators used in SR1.5. The consistency is due to two almost compensating changes: the increase in assessed historical warming between SR1.5 (based on AR5) and AR6, and a reduction in projected warming due to improved agreement between the emulators' response to emissions and the assessment to which it is calibrated.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 30 Nov 2022 08:22
Last Modified: 30 Nov 2022 08:22
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18445

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