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Tang, G., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Norton, A., Zaehle, S. & Meinshausen, M.
(2025).
Synthesizing global carbon–nitrogen coupling effects – the MAGICC coupled carbon–nitrogen cycle model v1.0.
Geoscientific Model Development 18 (7), 2193-2230. 10.5194/gmd-18-2193-2025.
Tang, G., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Jones, C., Gasser, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Norton, A., Ziehn, T., Romero-Prieto, A. & Meinshausen, M.
(2025).
Investigating carbon and nitrogen conservation in reported CMIP6 Earth system model data.
Geoscientific Model Development 18 (7), 2111-2136. 10.5194/gmd-18-2111-2025.
Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Cummins, D.P., Fredriksen, H.-B., Nicholls, Z.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Meinshausen, M., Allen, M., Jenkins, S., Leach, N., Mathison, C. & Partanen, A.-I.
(2024).
fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections.
Geoscientific Model Development 17 (23), 8569-8592. 10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024.
Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6638-4076, Lejeune, Q., Zhu, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9360-6797, Pfleiderer, P., Prutz, R., Ciais, P., Frölicher, T.L., Fuss, S., Gasser, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Gidden, M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Kropf, C.M., Lacroix, F., Lamboll, R., Martyr, R., Maussion, F., McCaughey, J.W., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Nicholls, Z.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723 et al.
(2024).
Overconfidence in climate overshoot.
Nature 634 (8033), 366-373. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9.
Meinshausen, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Beyer, K., Bodeker, G., Boucher, O., Canadell, J.G., Daniel, J.S., Diongue-Niang, A., Driouech, F., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Grose, M., Hansen, G., Hausfather, Z., Ilyina, T., Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Kimutai, J., King, A.D., Lee, J.-Y., Lennard, C. et al.
(2024).
A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs).
Geoscientific Model Development 17 (11), 4533-4559. 10.5194/gmd-17-4533-2024.
Palazzo Corner, S., Siegert, M., Ceppi, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Frölicher, T., Gallego-Sala, A., Haigh, J., Hegerl, G., Jones, C., Knutti, R., Koven, C., MacDougall, A., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Sallée, J., Sanderson, B., Séférian, R., Turetsky, M., Williams, R., Zaehle, S. et al.
(2023).
The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization.
Frontiers in Science 1 10.3389/fsci.2023.1170744.
McKinley, G., Bennington, V., Meinshausen, M. & Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723
(2023).
Modern air-sea flux distributions reduce uncertainty in the future ocean carbon sink.
Environmental Research Letters 18 (4), e044011. 10.1088/1748-9326/acc195.
Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924, Smith, C.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Kikstra, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Riahi, K.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 & Byers, E.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742
(2022).
Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled.
Geophysical Research Letters 49 (20) 10.1029/2022GL099788.
Brecha, R.J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Hare, B., Lewis, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924, Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 & Gidden, M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X
(2022).
Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal.
Nature Communications 13 (1), art.no. 4304. 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1.
Dooley, K., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723 & Meinshausen, M.
(2022).
Carbon removals from nature restoration are no substitute for steep emission reductions.
One Earth 5 (7), 812-824. 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002.
Kikstra, J.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Nicholls, Z.R.J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Smith, C.J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Lewis, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924, Lamboll, R.D., Byers, E.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742, Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M., Gidden, M.J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Kriegler, E., Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Skeie, R.B., Samset, B.H., Wienpahl, L., van Vuuren, D.P., van der Wijst, K.-I., Al Khourdajie, A., Forster, P.M. et al.
(2022).
The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures.
Preprint 10.5194/egusphere-2022-471.
Koven, C., Arora, V., Cadule, P., Fisher, R., Jones, C., Lawrence, D., Lewis, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924, Lindsey, K., Mathesius, S., Meinshausen, M., Mills, M., Nicholls, Z.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Sanderson, B., Swart, N., Wieder, W. & Zickfeld, K.
(2022).
23rd Century surprises: Long-term dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios.
Earth System Dynamics 10.5194/esd-2021-23.
(Submitted)
Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924, McGlade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Burdon, R., Cozzi, L. & Hackmann, B.
(2022).
Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C.
Nature 604 (7905), 304-309. 10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z.
Meinshausen, M. & Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723
(2022).
GWP*is a model, not a metric.
Environmental Research Letters 17 (4), e041002. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac5930.
Beusch, L., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Meinshausen, M. & Seneviratne, S.I.
(2022).
From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3).
Geoscientific Model Development 15 (5), 2085-2103. 10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022.
Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Bertram, C., Huppmann, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389, Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Bosetti, V., Cabardos, A.-M., Deppermann, A., Drouet, L., Frank, S.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Fricko, O.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Fujimori, S.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Krey, V.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Luderer, G., Paroussos, L., Schaeffer, R., Weitzel, M., van der Zwaan, B., Vrontisi, Z. et al.
(2021).
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot.
Nature Climate Change 11, 1063-1069. 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2.
Ou, Y., Iyer, G., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A.A., Hultman, N., McFarland, J.R., Binsted, M., Cui, R., Fyson, C., Geiges, A., Gonzales-Zuñiga, S., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Höhne, N., Jeffery, L., Kuramochi, T., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Patel, P. et al.
(2021).
Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?
Science 374 (6568), 693-695. 10.1126/science.abl8976.
Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. Rojas, Dorheim, K., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Gieseke, R., Hope, A. P., Leach, N. J., McBride, L. A., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Salawitch, R. J., Samset, B. H., Sandstad, M., Shiklomanov, A., Skeie, R. B., Smith, C.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Smith, S. J., Su, X. et al.
(2021).
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections.
Earth's Future 9 (6), e2020EF001900. 10.1029/2020EF001900.
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R. et al.
(2021).
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6.
Earth System Dynamics 12 (1), 253-293. 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021.
Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Meinshausen, M. & Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061
(2020).
Silicone v1.0.0: an open-source Python package for inferring missing emissions data for climate change research.
Geoscientific Model Development 13 (11), 5259-5275. 10.5194/gmd-13-5259-2020.
Nicholls, Z.R.J., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Gieseke, R., Dommenget, D., Dorheim, K., Fan, C.-S., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Golüke, U., Goodwin, P., Hartin, C., Hope, A.P., Kriegler, E., Leach, N.J., Marchegiani, D., McBride, L.A., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Salawitch, R.J. et al.
(2020).
Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1: introduction and evaluation of global-mean temperature response.
Geoscientific Model Development 13 (11), 5175-5190. 10.5194/gmd-13-5175-2020.
Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J.G., Daniel, J.S., John, A., Krummel, P.B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S., Rayner, P.J., Reimann, S., Smith, S.J. et al.
(2020).
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500.
Geoscientific Model Development 13 (8), 3571-3605. 10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020.
Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T.L., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R.B., Jones, C.D., Koven, C., Knutti, R., MacDougall, A.H., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R. & Zickfeld, K.
(2020).
Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy.
Nature Geoscience 13 (12), 769-779. 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3.
Jones, C.D., Frölicher, T.L., Koven, C., MacDougall, A.H., Matthews, H.D., Zickfeld, K., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Tokarska, K.B., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., Eby, M. & Burger, F.A.
(2019).
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions.
Geoscientific Model Development 12 (10), 4375-4385. 10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019.
Nauels, A., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Schleussner, C.-F., Meinshausen, M. & Mengel, M.
(2017).
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the shared socioeconomic pathways.
Environmental Research Letters 12 (11), p. 114002. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6.
Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Fricko, O.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Meinshausen, M., Krey, V.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Zilliacus, J.J.J. & Riahi, K.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498
(2017).
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties.
Nature Communications 8, e15748. 10.1038/ncomms15748.
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 & Schellnhuber, H.J.
(2017).
A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.
Science 355 (6331), 1269-1271. 10.1126/science.aah3443.
Robiou du Pont, Y., Jeffery, M.L., Gütschow, J., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Christoff, P. & Meinshausen, M.
(2017).
Equitable mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement goals.
Nature Climate Change 7 (1), 38-43. 10.1038/NCLIMATE3186.
Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, den Elzen, M., Höhne, M., Franzen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 & Meinshausen, M.
(2016).
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C.
Nature 534, 631-639. 10.1038/nature18307.
Meinshausen, M., Jeffrey, L., Guetschow, J., Du Pont, Y.R., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Schaeffer, M., Hohne, N., den Elzen, M., Oberthur, S. & Meinshausen, N.
(2015).
National post-2020 greenhouse gas targets and diversity-aware leadership.
Nature Climate Change 5, 1098-1106. 10.1038/nclimate2826.
Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Schaeffer, M., Meinshausen, M., Knutti, R., Alcamo, J., Riahi, K.
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(2015).
Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection.
Environmental Research Letters 10 (10), no.105007. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007.
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Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals.
Environmental Research Letters 10 (7), no.075003. 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075003.
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Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (46), 16325-16330. 10.1073/pnas.1415631111.
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(2014).
Questions of bias in climate models.
Nature Climate Change 4 (9), 741-742. 10.1038/nclimate2345.
Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Meinshausen, M., Sedlacek, J. & Knutti, R.
(2014).
Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy.
Environmental Research Letters 9 (3), no.031003. 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/031003.
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Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.
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Emission pathways consistent with a 2 degree C global temperature limit.
Nature Climate Change 1 (8), 413-418. 10.1038/nclimate1258.
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Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways.
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Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios.
Nature Geoscience 3 (6), 376-377. 10.1038/ngeo880.
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Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.
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Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods.
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Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development.
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Data
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