Browse by Project Publications

Forster, P. M., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Walsh, T., Lamb, W. F., Lamboll, R., Hall, B., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N. P., Palmer, M. D., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, von Schuckmann, K., Trewin, B., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Betts, R. A., Borger, A., Boyer, T., Broersma, J. A., et al. (2024). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data 16 (6) 2625-2658. 10.5194/essd-16-2625-2024.

Myhre, G., Byrom, R.E., Andrews, T., Forster, P.M., & Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 (2024). Efficacy of climate forcings in transient CMIP6 simulations. Frontiers in Climate 6 e1397358. 10.3389/fclim.2024.1397358.

Bossy, T., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Lecocq, F., Bednar, J., Tanaka, K., & Ciais, P. (2024). Least-cost and 2 °C-compliant mitigation pathways robust to physical uncertainty, economic paradigms, and intergenerational cost distribution. Environmental Research: Climate 3 (2) e025005. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad34a8.

Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 & Lamboll, R.D. (2024). Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment 5 (1) e35. 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8.

Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z.R.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Smith, C.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Kikstra, J.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Byers, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742, & Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2023). Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5.

Forster, P.M., Smith, C.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Walsh, T., Lamb, W.F., Lamboll, R., Hauser, M., Ribes, A., Rosen, D., Gillett, N., Palmer, M.D., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, von Schuckmann, K., Seneviratne, S.I., Trewin, B., Zhang, X., Allen, M., Andrew, R., Birt, A., Borger, A., Boyer, T., et al. (2023). Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence. Earth System Science Data 15 (6) 2295-2327. 10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023.

Quilcaille, Y., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Ciais, Philippe, & Boucher, Olivier (2023). CMIP6 simulations with the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1. Geoscientific Model Development 16 (3) 1129-1161. 10.5194/gmd-16-1129-2023.

Ganti, G., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Fyson, C., Nauels, A., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, & Schleußner, C.-F. (2023). Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach. Environmental Research Letters 18 (2) e024040. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb502.

Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2023). Net zero targets in science and policy. Environmental Research Letters 18 (2) e021003. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae.

Kikstra, J.S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Nicholls, Z.R.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Smith, Christopher J., Lewis, J., Lamboll, R.D., Byers, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742, Sandstad, M., Meinshausen, M, Gidden, M.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Kriegler, E., Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Skeie, R.B., Samset, B.H., Wienpahl, L., van Vuuren, D.P., van der Wijst, K.-I., Al Khourdajie, A., Forster, P.M., et al. (2022). The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures. Geoscientific Model Development 15 (24) 9075-9109. 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022.

Bossy, T., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, & Ciais, P. (2022). Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development 15 (23) 8831-8868. 10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022.

Friedlingstein, P., O'Sullivan, M., Jones, M.W., Andrew, R.M., Gregor, L., Hauck, J., Le Quéré, C., Luijkx, I.T., Olsen, A., Peters, G.P., Peters, W., Pongratz, J., Schwingshackl, C., Sitch, S., Canadell, J.G., Ciais, P., Jackson, R.B., Alin, S.R., Alkama, R., Arneth, A., et al. (2022). Global Carbon Budget 2022. Earth System Science Data 14 (11) 4811-4900. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022.

Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Forster, P.M., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Kikstra, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9405-1228, Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, & Byers, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0349-5742 (2022). Changes in IPCC Scenario Assessment Emulators Between SR1.5 and AR6 Unraveled. Geophysical Research Letters 49 (20) 10.1029/2022GL099788.

Brecha, R.J., Ganti, G., Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723, Hare, B., Lewis, J., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Smith, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, & Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X (2022). Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal. Nature Communications 13 (1) art.no. 4304. 10.1038/s41467-022-31734-1.

Fu, B., Li, J., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Ciais, P., Piao, S., Tao, S., Shen, G., Lai, Y., Han, L., & Li, B. (2022). Climate Warming Mitigation from Nationally Determined Contributions. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 10.1007/s00376-022-1396-8.

Schleussner, C.-F., Ganti, G., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, & Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X (2022). An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives. Communications Earth & Environment 3 e135. 10.1038/s43247-022-00467-w.

Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Tanaka, K., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Hajima, T., Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Séférian, R., Tachiiri, K., Vuichard, N., Yokohata, T., & Ciais, P. (2022). Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios. Earth System Dynamics 13 (2) 779-794. 10.5194/esd-13-779-2022.

Allen, M.R., Peters, G.P., Shine, K.P., Azar, C., Balcombe, P., Boucher, O., Cain, M., Ciais, P., Collins, W., Forster, P.M., Frame, D.J., Friedlingstein, P., Fyson, C., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Hare, B., Jenkins, S., Hamburg, S.P., Johansson, D.J.A., Lynch, J., Macey, A., et al. (2022). Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 (1) 10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2.

Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 & Forster, P. (2021). Suppressed Late‐20th Century Warming in CMIP6 Models Explained by Forcing and Feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (19) e2021GL094948. 10.1029/2021GL094948.

Höhne, N., Gidden, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0687-414X, den Elzen, M., Hans, F., Fyson, C., Geiges, A., Jeffery, M.L., Gonzales-Zuñiga, S., Mooldijk, S., Hare, W., & Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2021). Wave of net zero emission targets opens window to meeting the Paris Agreement. Nature Climate Change 11 820-822. 10.1038/s41558-021-01142-2.

Lamboll, R.D., Jones, C.D., Skeie, R.B., Fiedler, S., Samset, B.H., Gillett, N.P., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, & Forster, P.M. (2021). Modifying emissions scenario projections to account for the effects of COVID-19: protocol for CovidMIP. Geoscientific Model Development 14 (6) 3683-3695. 10.5194/gmd-14-3683-2021.

Nicholls, Z., Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., Corradi, M. Rojas, Dorheim, K., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Gieseke, R., Hope, A. P., Leach, N. J., McBride, L. A., Quilcaille, Y., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Salawitch, R. J., Samset, B. H., Sandstad, M., Shiklomanov, A., Skeie, R. B., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Smith, S. J., Su, X., et al. (2021). Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections. Earth's Future 9 (6) e2020EF001900. 10.1029/2020EF001900.

Edwards, T.L., Nowicki, S., Marzeion, B., Hock, R., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Jourdain, N.C., Slater, D.A., Turner, F.E., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, McKenna, C.M., Simon, E., Abe-Ouchi, A., Gregory, J.M., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W.H., Payne, A.J., Shepherd, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., et al. (2021). Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise. Nature 593 (7857) 74-82. 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y.

Melnikova, I., Boucher, O., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, Quilcaille, Y., Shiogama, H., Tachiiri, K., Yokohata, T., & Tanaka, K. (2021). Carbon Cycle Response to Temperature Overshoot Beyond 2°C: An Analysis of CMIP6 Models. Earth's Future 9 (5) 10.1029/2020EF001967.

Jones, C.D., Hickman, J.E., Rumbold, S.T., Walton, J., Lamboll, R.D., Skeie, R.B., Fiedler, S., Forster, P.M., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Abe, M., Botzet, M., Calvin, K., Cassou, C., Cole, J., Davini, P., Deushi, M., Dix, M., Fyfe, J., Gillett, N., Ilyina, T., et al. (2021). The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (8) e2020GL091883. 10.1029/2020GL091883.

Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, van Vuuren, D., Cescatti, A., House, J., Nabuurs, G.-J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R.A., Calvin, K., Ceccherini, G., Federici, S., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Gusti, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Humpenöder, F., Korosuo, A., Perugini, L., et al. (2021). Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6.

Kramer, R.J., He, H., Soden, B.J., Oreopoulos, L., Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., & Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633 (2021). Observational evidence of increasing global radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (7) e2020GL091585. 10.1029/2020GL091585.

Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z., Tokarska, K. B., Hurtt, G., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Meehl, G., Moss, R., et al. (2021). Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. Earth System Dynamics 12 (1) 253-293. 10.5194/esd-12-253-2021.

Andrews, T., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Myhre, G., Forster, P.M., Chadwick, R., & Ackerley, D. (2021). Effective Radiative Forcing in a GCM With Fixed Surface Temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126 (4) e2020JD033880. 10.1029/2020JD033880.

McKenna, C.M., Maycock, A.C., Forster, P.M., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, & Tokarska, K.B. (2021). Stringent mitigation substantially reduces risk of unprecedented near-term warming rates. Nature Climate Change 11 (12) 126-131. 10.1038/s41558-020-00957-9.

Thornhill, G.D., Collins, W.J., Kramer, R.J., Olivié, D., Skeie, R.B., O'Connor, FM., Abraham, N.L., Checa-Garcia, R., Bauer, S.E., Deushi, M., Emmons, L.K., Forster, P.M., Horowitz, L.W., Johnson, B., Keeble, J., Lamarque, J.-F., Michou, M., Mills, M.J., Mulcahy, J.P., Myhre, G., et al. (2021). Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 (2) 853-874. 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021.

Damon Matthews, H., Tokarska, K.B., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, MacDougall, A.H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., & Knutti, R. (2021). An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment 2 (1) e7. 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9.

Hodnebrog, Ø., Myhre, G., Kramer, R.J., Shine, K.P., Andrews, T., Faluvegi, G., Kasoar, M., Kirkevåg, A., Lamarque, J.-F., Mülmenstädt, J., Olivié, D., Samset, B.H., Shindell, D., Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Takemura, T., & Voulgarakis, A. (2020). The effect of rapid adjustments to halocarbons and N2O on radiative forcing. Climate and Atmospheric Science 3 (1) e43. 10.1038/s41612-020-00150-x.

Smith, C.J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, Kramer, R.J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F.M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., et al. (2020). Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20 (16) 9591-9618. 10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020.

Matthews, H.D., Tokarska, K.B., Nicholls, Z.R.J., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Canadell, J.G., Friedlingstein, P., Frölicher, T.L., Forster, P.M., Gillett, N.P., Ilyina, T., Jackson, R.B., Jones, C.D., Koven, C., Knutti, R., MacDougall, A.H., Meinshausen, M., Mengis, N., Séférian, R., & Zickfeld, K. (2020). Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience 13 (12) 769-779. 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3.

Tokarska, K.B., Zickfeld, K., & Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2019). Path Independence of Carbon Budgets When Meeting a Stringent Global Mean Temperature Target After an Overshoot. Earth's Future 7 (12) 1283-1295. 10.1029/2019EF001312.