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Orlov, A., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Daloz, A.S., Zabel, F., Minoli, S., Liu, W., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A.K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Okada, M., Poschlod, B., Smerald, A., Schneider, J.M. & Sillmann, J. (2024). Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. One Earth 7 (7), 1250-1265. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012.

Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Franke, J.A., Ruane, A.C., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Wang, X., Williams, K., Zabel, F. et al. (2024). Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality‐Based Model Evaluation. Earth's Future 12 (3), e2023EF003773. 10.1029/2023EF003773.

Molina Bacca, E.J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B.L., Karstens, K., Chen, D.M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Iizumi, T., Jain, A.K., Liu, W., Okada, M., Smerald, A., Zabel, F., Lotze-Campen, H. & Popp, A. (2023). Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Communications Earth & Environment 4 (1), e284. 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.

Cinner, J., Caldwell, I., Thiault, L., Ben, J., Blanchard, J., Coll, M., Diedrich, A., Eddy, T., Everett, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gascuel, D., Guiet, J., Gurney, G., Heneghan, R., Jägermeyr, J., Jiddawi, N., Lahari, R., Kuange, J., Liu, W., Maury, O. et al. (2022). Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nature Communications 13 (1), e3530. 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4.

Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A.C., Elliott, J., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Franke, J.A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J.R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A.K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lange, S., Lin, T.-S. et al. (2021). Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nature Food 2, 873-885. 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y.

Thiery, B.W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Schleussner, C.-F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S.I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D.N., Zhao, F., Willner, S.N., Büchner, Ma., Volkholz, J., Bauer, N., Chang, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778, Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L. et al. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science 374 (6564), 158-160. 10.1126/science.abi7339.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gardner, C., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jägermeyr, J., Jones, C.D., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Stephens, H., Zabel, F. & Moyer, E.J. (2021). Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Global Change Biology 28, 167-181. 10.1111/gcb.15868.

Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J.M., Franke, J.A., Moyer, E., Dury, M., Francois, L., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Olin, S., Rabin, S.S., Mauser, W., Hank, T., Ruane, A.C. & Asseng, S. (2021). Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Global Change Biology 27 (16), 3870-3882. 10.1111/gcb.15649.

Ruane, A.C., Phillips, M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Jägermeyr, J., Arneth, A., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Rosenzweig, C., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Sultan, B. et al. (2021). Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 300, e108313. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313.

Ringeval, B., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Mueller, N.D., Ciais, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Debaeke, P. & Pellerin, S. (2021). Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development 14 (3), 1639-1656. 10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021.

Müller, C., Franke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Ruane, A.C., Elliott, J., Moyer, E., Heinke, J., Falloon, P.D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Francois, L., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Williams, K. & Zabel, F. (2021). Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16 (3), e034040. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc.

Heinke, J., Lannerstad, M., Gerten, D., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Herrero, M., Notenbaert, A.M.O., Hoff, H. & Müller, C. (2020). Water Use in Global Livestock Production—Opportunities and Constraints for Increasing Water Productivity. Water Resources Research 56 (12) 10.1029/2019WR026995.

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T, Reyer, C.P.O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D.N., Büchner, M., Chang, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gerten, D., Gosling, S.N. et al. (2020). Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future 8 (12) 10.1029/2020EF001616.

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Valin, H., Bodirsky, B., Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason-D’Croz, D., Müller, C., Ochi, Y., Pérez Domínguez, I., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Meijl, H. et al. (2020). Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nature Climate Change 10 (5), 420-421. 10.1038/s41558-020-0767-3.

Jägermeyr, J., Robock, A., Elliott, J., Müller, C., Xia, L., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Schmid, E., Liu, W., Zabel, F., Rabin, S.S., Puma, M.J., Heslin, A.C., Franke, J., Foster, I., Asseng, S., Bardeen, C.G., Toon, O.B. & Rosenzweig, C. (2020). A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1919049117.

Kanter, D.R., Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Bodirsky, B.L., Bouwman, L., Boyer, E., Buckle, S., Compton, J.E., Dalgaard, T., de Vries, W., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Leip, A., Müller, C., Popp, A., Raghuram, N., Rao, S., Sutton, M.A., Tian, H., Westhoek, H., Zhang, X. & Zurek, M. (2020). A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Global Environmental Change 61, e102029. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102029.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A.C., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P.D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, François, L., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Koch, M., Li, M., Liu, W. et al. (2020). The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development 13 (5), 2315-2336. 10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020.

Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2019). Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS ONE 14 (9), e0221862. 10.1371/journal.pone.0221862.

Terrer, C., Jackson, R.B., Prentice, I.C., Keenan, T.F., Kaiser, C., Vicca, S., Fisher, J.B., Reich, P. B., Stocker, B.D., Hungate, B.A., Peñuelas, J., McCallum, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5812-9988, Soudzilovskaia, N.A., Cernusak, L.A., Talhelm, A.F., Van Sundert, K., Piao, S., Newton, P.C.D., Hovenden, M.J., Blumenthal, D.M. et al. (2019). Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass. Nature Climate Change 9 (9) 10.1038/s41558-019-0545-2.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Kelly, D., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hoek, S., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Sakurai, G. et al. (2019). The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Scientific Data 6 (1), e50. 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8.

Liu, B., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Porter, J.R., Challinor, A.J., Müller, C., Ruane, A.C., Waha, K., Thorburn, P.J., Aggarwal, P.K., Ahmed, M., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Basso, B., Biernath, C., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D., De Sanctis, G., Dumont, B., Espadafor, M., Eyshi Rezaei, E. et al. (2019). Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology 25 (4), 1428-1444. 10.1111/gcb.14542.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Francois, L., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, C., Jacquemin, I., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Koch, M., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T. et al. (2019). Understanding crop model response types in a global gridded crop model ensemble. In: Agriculture and Climate Change, 24-26 March 2019, Budapest, Hungary.

Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R., O'Leary, G., Fitzgerald, G., Girousse, C., Motzo, R., Giunta, F., Babar, M., Reynolds, M., Kheir, A., Thorbum, P., Waha, K., Ruane, A., Aggarwal, P., Ahmed, M., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Basso, B., Biernath, C. et al. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology 25 (1), 155-173. 10.1111/gcb.14481.

Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Müller, C., Ciais, P., Abbaspour, K.C. & Schulin, R. (2018). Achieving High Crop Yields with Low Nitrogen Emissions in Global Agricultural Input Intensification. Environmental Science & Technology 52 (23), 13782-13791. 10.1021/acs.est.8b03610.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Ciais, P., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Reddy, A.D., Schmid, E. & Wang, X. (2018). Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs. PLoS ONE 13 (6), e0198748. 10.1371/journal.pone.0198748.

van Meijl, H., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Lotze-Campen, H., Stehfest, E., Witzke, P., Domínguez, I.P., Bodirsky, B.L., van Dijk, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-7304, Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., Humpenöder, F., Koopman, J.F.L., Müller, C., Popp, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X & van Zeist, W.-J. (2018). Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050. Environmental Research Letters 13 (6), e064021. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4.

Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T., Thiery, W., Seneviratne, S.I. & Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2018). Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters 13, e064007. 10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b.

Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Antle, J., Elliott, J., Ashfaq, M., Chatta, A.A., Ewert, F., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hathie, I., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Hoogenboom, G., Lotze-Campen, H., MacCarthy, D.S., Mason-D'Croz, D., Contreras, E.M., Müller, C., Perez-Dominguez, I., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Raymundo, R.M. et al. (2018). Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119), e20160455. 10.1098/rsta.2016.0455.

Hattermann, F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, M., Gosling, S.N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539, Yang, T. & Krysanova, V. (2018). Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. Environmental Research Letters 13 (1), e015006. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938.

Porwollik, V., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Iizumi, T., Ray, D.K., Ruane, A.C., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P.J., Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Sakurai, G. et al. (2017). Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations. European Journal of Agronomy 88, 10-21. 10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.006.

Frieler, K., Schauberger, B., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Müller, C., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Schaphoff, S., Schewe, J., Schmidt, E., Warszawski, L. & Levermann, A. (2017). Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability. Earth's Future 5 (6), 605-616. 10.1002/2016EF000525.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Glotter, M., Hoek, S., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Ray, D., Reddy, A. et al. (2017). Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 10, 1403-1422. 10.5194/gmd-2016-207.

Hattermann, F. F., Krysanova, V., Gosling, S. N., Dankers, R., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Flörke, M., Huang, S., Motovilov, Y., Buda, S., Yang, T., Müller, C., Leng, G., Tang, Q., Portmann, F. T., Hagemann, S., Gerten, D., Wada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539, Masaki, Y., Alemayehu, T. et al. (2017). Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins. Climatic Change 141 (3), 561-576. 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4.

Schauberger, B., Archontoulis, S., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Eliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Rolinski, F., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Wang, X., Schlenker, W. & Frieler, K. (2017). Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Communications 8, art.no.13931. 10.1038/ncomms13931.

Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2016). Uncertainties in global crop model frameworks: effects of cultivar distribution, crop management and soil handling on crop yield estimates. Biogeosciences Discussions, 1-30. 10.5194/bg-2016-527. (Submitted)

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Martre, P., Ruane, A.C., Wallach, D., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Alderman, P.D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., Sanctis, G. et al. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change 6 (12), 1130-1136. 10.1038/nclimate3115.

Pugh, T.A.M, Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Olin, S., Schmid, E. & Arneth, A. (2016). Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nature Communications 7, e12608. 10.1038/ncomms12608.

Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Boote, K.J., Conway, D., Ruane, A.C., Gerten, D., Jones, J.W., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Olin, S., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Yang, H. & Rosenzweig, C. (2016). Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change 6 (4), 1-8. 10.1038/NCLIMATE2995.

Nelson, G.C., Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Sands, R.D., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., d'Croz, D.M., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S. et al. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3274-3279. 10.1073/pnas.1222465110.