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Orlov, A., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Daloz, A.S., Zabel, F., Minoli, S., Liu, W., Lin, T.-S., Jain, A.K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Okada, M., Poschlod, B., Smerald, A., Schneider, J.M. & Sillmann, J. (2024). Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. One Earth 7 (7), 1250-1265. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012.

Müller, C., Jägermeyr, J., Franke, J.A., Ruane, A.C., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Wang, X., Williams, K., Zabel, F. et al. (2024). Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality‐Based Model Evaluation. Earth's Future 12 (3), e2023EF003773. 10.1029/2023EF003773.

Molina Bacca, E.J., Stevanović, M., Bodirsky, B.L., Karstens, K., Chen, D.M.-C., Leip, D., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Heinke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Iizumi, T., Jain, A.K., Liu, W., Okada, M., Smerald, A., Zabel, F., Lotze-Campen, H. & Popp, A. (2023). Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Communications Earth & Environment 4 (1), e284. 10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.

Cinner, J., Caldwell, I., Thiault, L., Ben, J., Blanchard, J., Coll, M., Diedrich, A., Eddy, T., Everett, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gascuel, D., Guiet, J., Gurney, G., Heneghan, R., Jägermeyr, J., Jiddawi, N., Lahari, R., Kuange, J., Liu, W., Maury, O. et al. (2022). Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nature Communications 13 (1), e3530. 10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4.

Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Ruane, A.C., Elliott, J., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Castillo, O., Faye, B., Foster, I., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Franke, J.A., Fuchs, K., Guarin, J.R., Heinke, J., Hoogenboom, G., Iizumi, T., Jain, A.K., Kelly, D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lange, S., Lin, T.-S. et al. (2021). Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nature Food 2, 873-885. 10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y.

Thiery, B.W., Lange, S., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Schleussner, C.-F., Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S.I., Andrijevic, M., Frieler, K., Emanuel, K., Geiger, T., Bresch, D.N., Zhao, F., Willner, S.N., Büchner, Ma., Volkholz, J., Bauer, N., Chang, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778, Ciais, P., Dury, M., François, L. et al. (2021). Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science 374 (6564), 158-160. 10.1126/science.abi7339.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Minoli, S., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gardner, C., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jägermeyr, J., Jones, C.D., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Stephens, H., Zabel, F. & Moyer, E.J. (2021). Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Global Change Biology 28, 167-181. 10.1111/gcb.15868.

Zabel, F., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Minoli, S., Jägermeyr, J., Schneider, J.M., Franke, J.A., Moyer, E., Dury, M., Francois, L., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Olin, S., Rabin, S.S., Mauser, W., Hank, T., Ruane, A.C. & Asseng, S. (2021). Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Global Change Biology 27 (16), 3870-3882. 10.1111/gcb.15649.

Ruane, A.C., Phillips, M., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Jägermeyr, J., Arneth, A., Balkovič, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Rosenzweig, C., Sakurai, G., Schmid, E., Sultan, B. et al. (2021). Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 300, e108313. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313.

Ringeval, B., Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Mueller, N.D., Ciais, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Debaeke, P. & Pellerin, S. (2021). Potential yield simulated by global gridded crop models: using a process-based emulator to explain their differences. Geoscientific Model Development 14 (3), 1639-1656. 10.5194/gmd-14-1639-2021.

Müller, C., Franke, J., Jägermeyr, J., Ruane, A.C., Elliott, J., Moyer, E., Heinke, J., Falloon, P.D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Francois, L., Hank, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Williams, K. & Zabel, F. (2021). Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 16 (3), e034040. 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc.

Heinke, J., Lannerstad, M., Gerten, D., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Herrero, M., Notenbaert, A.M.O., Hoff, H. & Müller, C. (2020). Water Use in Global Livestock Production—Opportunities and Constraints for Increasing Water Productivity. Water Resources Research 56 (12) 10.1029/2019WR026995.

Lange, S., Volkholz, J., Geiger, T., Zhao, F., Vega, I., Veldkamp, T, Reyer, C.P.O., Warszawski, L., Huber, V., Jägermeyr, J., Schewe, J., Bresch, D.N., Büchner, M., Chang, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4463-7778, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Emanuel, K., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Gerten, D., Gosling, S.N. et al. (2020). Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future 8 (12) 10.1029/2020EF001616.

Hasegawa, T., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Valin, H., Bodirsky, B., Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., Kyle, P., Koopman, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason-D’Croz, D., Müller, C., Ochi, Y., Pérez Domínguez, I., Stehfest, E., Sulser, T., Tabeau, A., Takahashi, K., Takakura, J., van Meijl, H. et al. (2020). Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation. Nature Climate Change 10 (5), 420-421. 10.1038/s41558-020-0767-3.

Jägermeyr, J., Robock, A., Elliott, J., Müller, C., Xia, L., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Schmid, E., Liu, W., Zabel, F., Rabin, S.S., Puma, M.J., Heslin, A.C., Franke, J., Foster, I., Asseng, S., Bardeen, C.G., Toon, O.B. & Rosenzweig, C. (2020). A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.1919049117.

Kanter, D.R., Winiwarter, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7131-1496, Bodirsky, B.L., Bouwman, L., Boyer, E., Buckle, S., Compton, J.E., Dalgaard, T., de Vries, W., Leclere, D. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8658-1509, Leip, A., Müller, C., Popp, A., Raghuram, N., Rao, S., Sutton, M.A., Tian, H., Westhoek, H., Zhang, X. & Zurek, M. (2020). A framework for nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Global Environmental Change 61, e102029. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.102029.

Franke, J.A., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A.C., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P.D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, François, L., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, R.C., Jacquemin, I., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Koch, M., Li, M., Liu, W. et al. (2020). The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO<sub>2</sub>, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geoscientific Model Development 13 (5), 2315-2336. 10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020.

Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovič, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2019). Parameterization-induced uncertainties and impacts of crop management harmonization in a global gridded crop model ensemble. PLoS ONE 14 (9), e0221862. 10.1371/journal.pone.0221862.

Terrer, C., Jackson, R.B., Prentice, I.C., Keenan, T.F., Kaiser, C., Vicca, S., Fisher, J.B., Reich, P. B., Stocker, B.D., Hungate, B.A., Peñuelas, J., McCallum, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5812-9988, Soudzilovskaia, N.A., Cernusak, L.A., Talhelm, A.F., Van Sundert, K., Piao, S., Newton, P.C.D., Hovenden, M.J., Blumenthal, D.M. et al. (2019). Nitrogen and phosphorus constrain the CO2 fertilization of global plant biomass. Nature Climate Change 9 (9) 10.1038/s41558-019-0545-2.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Kelly, D., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hoek, S., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Sakurai, G. et al. (2019). The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset. Scientific Data 6 (1), e50. 10.1038/s41597-019-0023-8.

Liu, B., Martre, P., Ewert, F., Porter, J.R., Challinor, A.J., Müller, C., Ruane, A.C., Waha, K., Thorburn, P.J., Aggarwal, P.K., Ahmed, M., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Basso, B., Biernath, C., Bindi, M., Cammarano, D., De Sanctis, G., Dumont, B., Espadafor, M., Eyshi Rezaei, E. et al. (2019). Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming. Global Change Biology 25 (4), 1428-1444. 10.1111/gcb.14542.

Asseng, S., Martre, P., Maiorano, A., Rötter, R., O'Leary, G., Fitzgerald, G., Girousse, C., Motzo, R., Giunta, F., Babar, M., Reynolds, M., Kheir, A., Thorbum, P., Waha, K., Ruane, A., Aggarwal, P., Ahmed, M., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Basso, B., Biernath, C. et al. (2019). Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein. Global Change Biology 25 (1), 155-173. 10.1111/gcb.14481.

Liu, W., Yang, H., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Müller, C., Ciais, P., Abbaspour, K.C. & Schulin, R. (2018). Achieving High Crop Yields with Low Nitrogen Emissions in Global Agricultural Input Intensification. Environmental Science & Technology 52 (23), 13782-13791. 10.1021/acs.est.8b03610.

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C., Ciais, P., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Reddy, A.D., Schmid, E. & Wang, X. (2018). Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs. PLoS ONE 13 (6), e0198748. 10.1371/journal.pone.0198748.

van Meijl, H., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Lotze-Campen, H., Stehfest, E., Witzke, P., Domínguez, I.P., Bodirsky, B.L., van Dijk, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-7304, Doelman, J., Fellmann, T., Humpenöder, F., Koopman, J.F.L., Müller, C., Popp, A., Tabeau, A., Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X & van Zeist, W.-J. (2018). Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050. Environmental Research Letters 13 (6), e064021. 10.1088/1748-9326/aabdc4.

Schleussner, C.-F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T., Thiery, W., Seneviratne, S.I. & Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061 (2018). Crop productivity changes in 1.5°C and 2°C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty. Environmental Research Letters 13, e064007. 10.1088/1748-9326/aab63b.

Rosenzweig, C., Ruane, A.C., Antle, J., Elliott, J., Ashfaq, M., Chatta, A.A., Ewert, F., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Hathie, I., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Hoogenboom, G., Lotze-Campen, H., MacCarthy, D.S., Mason-D'Croz, D., Contreras, E.M., Müller, C., Perez-Dominguez, I., Phillips, M., Porter, C., Raymundo, R.M. et al. (2018). Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376 (2119), e20160455. 10.1098/rsta.2016.0455.

Hattermann, F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, M., Gosling, S.N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539, Yang, T. & Krysanova, V. (2018). Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study. Environmental Research Letters 13 (1), e015006. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938.

Porwollik, V., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Iizumi, T., Ray, D.K., Ruane, A.C., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P.J., Liu, W., Pugh, T.A.M., Reddy, A., Sakurai, G. et al. (2017). Spatial and temporal uncertainty of crop yield aggregations. European Journal of Agronomy 88, 10-21. 10.1016/j.eja.2016.08.006.

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Müller, C., Elliott, J., Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Arneth, A., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Glotter, M., Hoek, S., Iizumi, T., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Lawrence, P., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T., Ray, D., Reddy, A. et al. (2017). Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications. Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 10, 1403-1422. 10.5194/gmd-2016-207.

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Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Elliott, J., Müller, C., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Chryssanthacopoulos, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Jones, C.D., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Liu, W., Reddy, A., Schmid, E., Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Yang, H., Arneth, A., Ciais, P., Deryng, D., Lawrence, P.J., Olin, S., Pugh, T.A.M., Ruane, A.C. et al. (2016). Uncertainties in global crop model frameworks: effects of cultivar distribution, crop management and soil handling on crop yield estimates. Biogeosciences Discussions, 1-30. 10.5194/bg-2016-527. (Submitted)

Liu, B., Asseng, S., Müller, C., Ewert, F., Elliott, J., Lobell, D.B., Martre, P., Ruane, A.C., Wallach, D., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Alderman, P.D., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Cammarano, D., Challinor, A., Deryng, D., Sanctis, G. et al. (2016). Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods. Nature Climate Change 6 (12), 1130-1136. 10.1038/nclimate3115.

Pugh, T.A.M, Müller, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Olin, S., Schmid, E. & Arneth, A. (2016). Climate analogues suggest limited potential for intensification of production on current croplands under climate change. Nature Communications 7, e12608. 10.1038/ncomms12608.

Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Müller, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Boote, K.J., Conway, D., Ruane, A.C., Gerten, D., Jones, J.W., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Olin, S., Schaphoff, S., Schmid, E., Yang, H. & Rosenzweig, C. (2016). Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity. Nature Climate Change 6 (4), 1-8. 10.1038/NCLIMATE2995.

Nelson, G.C., Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Sands, R.D., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., d'Croz, D.M., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., Robinson, S. et al. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (9), 3274-3279. 10.1073/pnas.1222465110.

Conference or Workshop Item

Müller, C., Elliott, J., Ruane, A., Jägermeyr, J., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Ciais, P., Dury, M., Falloon, P., Folberth, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238, Francois, L., Hank, T., Hoffmann, M., Izaurralde, C., Jacquemin, I., Jones, C., Khabarov, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-4668, Koch, M., Liu, W., Olin, S., Pugh, T. et al. (2019). Understanding crop model response types in a global gridded crop model ensemble. In: Agriculture and Climate Change, 24-26 March 2019, Budapest, Hungary.